Opleving
Na zoveel weken dalende koersen ziet de wereld er vanochtend wat vrolijker
uit: een mooie oorzaak van de stijging in Japan, wellicht een tip voor
overheden alhier, zijn de marginverplichtingen voor de shorts: “Tepco
Rises Record 24% After Short Sale – Tokyo Electric Power Co., battling the
worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl, surged the most in almost four decades
after the stock exchange clamped down on short-selling of the shares and the
Cabinet approved a bill to help the utility compensate victims of the
disaster. … The Tokyo Stock Exchange raised the collateral requirement for
short sales of the utility to 50 percent from 30 percent, discouraging
speculators by making the trade more expensive.” Al heeft een
short-restrictie meestal maar een kortstondig effect, het is altijd goede
pr. Dat wil zeggen, de schuld geven aan die vervelende shorts is dat in de
ogen van het grote publiek. Totale onzin, maar goed

Griekenland
Een zoveelste verlaging van de rating van Griekenland:
“S&P’s verlaagt waardering – … In een toelichting wijst S&P
op de discussie over het al dan niet bijdragen van banken aan de
schuldsanering van Griekenland. Bovendien zou de werkloosheid in
Griekenland, die steeg van 11,6 procent in maart vorig jaar naar 16,2
procent in maart van dit jaar, onvoldoende worden aangepakt.” Hier
de text van S&P: Daarin een aantal punten: “* Our recovery rating of ‘4’
for Greece also remains unchanged, indicating an estimated 30%-50% recovery
of principal by bondholders.” “The downgrade reflects our view that there is
a significantly higher likelihood of one or more defaults, as defined by our
criteria relating to full and timely payment, linked to efforts by official
creditors to close an emerging financing gap in Greece. This financing gap
has emerged in part because Greece’s access to market financing in 2012 and
possibly beyond, as envisaged in the current official EU/IMF program, is
unlikely to materialize.” “Moreover, the downgrade reflects our view that
implementation risks associated with the EU/IMF program are rising, given
the increasingly complicated political environment in Greece coupled with
its current difficult economic climate.” Geen opzienbarende meningen, maar
wel bewijs dat het besef er nu eindelijk is.

Huizenmarkt VS
Een andere geliefd onderwerp: de gecombineerde problemen bij de banken en de
huizenmarkt in de VS. Het gaat om serieuze bedragen “The
remnants of the Countrywide deal are still being felt as Sanford C.
Bernstein analysts noted that BofA could face another $27 billion of housing
losses between now and 2013. That’s on top of the $46 billion the bank has
put up so far. ” En van verbetering is geen sprake. Anyway – het nieuws
dus: “Bank
of America ‘Significantly Hindered’ Review of Foreclosures, U.S. Says – Bank
of America Corp. (BAC), the largest U.S. lender, “significantly hindered” a
federal review of its foreclosures on loans insured by the Federal Housing
Administration, the U.S. said. The bank was slow in providing data and
offered incomplete information, according to the U.S. Department of Housing
and Urban Development inspector general’s office, which conducted the
review.”

Gerelateerd nieuws: “New York, Delaware Said to Probe Trustee Banks for
Mortgage Securities – New York has broadened its probe of the U.S. mortgage
industry, requesting information from additional financial institutions as
part of an investigation into the way mortgages were bundled and sold to
investors, two people familiar with the matter said. New York Attorney
General Eric Schneiderman’s office requested documents from Deutsche Bank AG
(DB) and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK), which act as trustees for
mortgage-bond trusts, said one of the people. ” Uit het verhaal: “Mortgage
securitization requires several properly executed transfers, and if the
required legal steps aren’t followed “to the letter,” ownership of the
mortgage loans may come into question, according to a report last year by
the Congressional Oversight Panel. If the process didn’t comply with
documents governing the securitization, then the assets wouldn’t have been
transferred to the trust, according to the report.” Dat dit belangrijk is
spreekt vanzelf lijkt me. En da’s de reden waarom het nieuws over MERS
zo belangrijk is.

Nederlandse hypotheken
Moody’s heeft nog eens naar onze hypothekenmarkt gekeken. Voorlopig geen
problemen:
“Moody’s Updates Approach To Analysis Of Dutch Bank Mortgage Legal Risks”

Een verloren decennium in de VS?
Tijdens het Pinksterweekend in de FT te lezen: “How
to avoid our own lost decade - By Lawrence Summers”. Het is goed
om eens de mening te lezen van iemand die de huidige economische problemen
in het Westen (en Japan natuurlijk) als een gevolg van problemen aan de
vraagzijde. Hysterie over inflatie, de verderfelijkheid van de mensheid in
het algemeen en de schuldberg die eerst helemaal afgelost moet worden
voordat er herstel kan plaatsvinden, is genoeg te lezen.

Naast de artikelen waarin in wordt beweert dat er helemaal niks aan de hand
is, de economie loopt op rolletjes, kijk maar naar Duitsland etc.etc. Maar
goed, hier dus wat dingen die Summer zegt: “Even with the 2008-2009 policy
effort that successfully prevented financial collapse, the US is now halfway
to a lost economic decade. In the past five years, our economy’s growth rate
averaged less than one per cent a year, similar to Japan when its bubble
burst. … You cannot prescribe for a malady unless you diagnose it accurately
and understand its causes. That the problem in a period of high
unemployment, as now, is a lack of business demand for employees not any
lack of desire to work is all but self-evident, as shown by three points:
the propensity of workers to quit jobs and the level of job openings are at
near-record low; rises in non-employment have taken place among all
demographic groups; rising rates of profit and falling rates of wage growth
suggest employers, not workers, have the power in almost every market. A
sick economy constrained by demand works very differently from a normal one.
Measures that usually promote growth and job creation can have little
effect, or backfire. … It is far too soon for financial policy to shift
towards preventing future bubbles and possible inflation, and away from
assuring adequate demand. The underlying rate of inflation is still trending
downwards and the problems of insufficient borrowing and investing exceed
any problems of overconfidence. … Policy in other dimensions should be
informed by the shortage of demand that is a defining characteristic of our
economy. The Obama administration is doing important work in promoting
export growth by modernising export controls, promoting US products abroad
and reaching and enforcing trade agreements. Much more could be done through changes
in visa policy to promote exports of tourism as well as education and health
services. Recent presidential directives regarding relaxation of
inappropriate regulatory burdens should also be rigorously implemented. “

Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en
verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research.

Volg de markten op Z24 Beurs

Dit artikel is oorspronkelijk verschenen op z24.nl